Fuel prices don’t change only because oil abroad went up or down. In Brazil, very domestic factors — such as the time of year and inventory levels — make a visible difference at the pump.
When these topics appear in the news, they usually come loaded with technical terms. Here the idea is different: separate myth from truth with simple examples, from diesel to LPG, without econ-speak.
Seasonality: not theory, it’s the calendar
Some months are naturally more pressured than others. This applies to both demand and supply.
- Year-end and school holidays: more trips, higher gasoline consumption. - Agricultural harvest: more trucks on the road, diesel in high demand. - Rainy periods in certain regions: slower logistics, higher costs.
None of this guarantees an immediate price increase, but it creates an environment that is more sensitive to any other factor.
Myth: "during the harvest, prices always spike"
The harvest weighs on diesel consumption, but it doesn’t act alone. If inventories are comfortable and logistics flow, the impact can be small.
There are years when the harvest is intense and, even so, prices remain relatively stable. In others, a smaller harvest coincides with tight inventories and the effect shows up faster at the pump.
Inventories: tank levels matter (a lot)
Inventories act as shock absorbers. When they’re full, they help hold back fluctuations. When they’re low, any noise turns into price movement.
In Brazil, inventories involve:
- Refineries - Distribution bases - Port terminals
If these points operate at the limit, the market becomes more sensitive to ship delays, refinery maintenance, or demand spikes.
Truth: low inventory is not synonymous with immediate shortages
Emptier tanks do not mean automatic supply disruptions. The system keeps working, with constant replenishment.
What changes is the level of comfort. With less margin, the cost of replenishment — especially via imports — starts to weigh more on the final price.
LPG, diesel, and gasoline: seasonality isn’t the same for everyone
Each fuel feels the calendar in its own way.
- **LPG**: more stable consumption, but it can be affected by regional spikes and logistics. - **Gasoline**: more sensitive to holidays, long weekends, and tourism. - **Diesel**: tied to transportation and the harvest, with impact more concentrated in certain periods.
That’s why they don’t always rise or fall together.
Myth: high inventories guarantee low prices
Full inventories help, but they don’t work miracles. If replenishment costs are high — whether due to exchange rates, freight, or the international market — prices can remain under pressure.
Inventory buys time; it doesn’t create automatic discounts.
How to read these signals day to day
Without spreadsheets or charts, you can observe a few clues:
- News about harvests, holidays, or weather events - Information about imports and ship arrivals - A growing price gap between regions
These signals don’t explain everything, but they help clarify why prices move even when nothing seems to have changed.
Fluctuation isn’t chaos, it’s dynamics
Seasonality and inventories are neither villains nor saviors. They’re normal parts of a large system that needs to adjust all the time.
When the calendar tightens and tanks thin out, prices feel it. When demand eases and inventories breathe, the market gains room. Reading this dynamic calmly helps remove the drama — and the myth — from price movements.
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